THE MARKET’S REACTION/OVER REACTION TO INFLATION
Actually, the market reacts to two inputs for inflation: the economic numbers themselves, primarily CPI and PPI, and also the Fed’s actions, either reactive or proactive, to the inflation metrics.
Current Market Drivers
The US labor market is tight and supply chains stay stressed.
The Russian-Ukraine war exasperates commodity pricing.
The financial system stressed from sanctions against Russia.
US inflation setting records. March CPI over 8%; PPI over 11%
The Fed under pressure: QE has turned to QT.
The inverted yield curve persists with the different debt markets responding in an asynchronous fashion. Results: volatility. But to shine a clarifying light on the matter, not all yield curves are the same.
The spread between the yield on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes this month has been widening , which can be an indicator of an economic expansion. The U.S. 2-year to 10-year curve , on the other hand, has flattened dramatically this year and is close to inverting, where the longer maturity would yield less than the shorter. Inversions are considered a harbinger of eventual recession. But the signal right now is not clear. The 3-month T-bill yield is still lower...because it doesn't reflect rate hikes in the future. But it will rise, as the Fed hikes rates. U.S. two-year yields, on the other hand, are a really good indicator of where Federal Reserve policy is headed over the next two years, and it's showing a much steeper path of rate hikes.
If the Fed follows through as expected we’ll see ½ point rise in Fed Funds at the May FOMC meeting, and perhaps (68% chance per the futures market) another ½ point rise in June. The market is expecting 6-8 rate hikes yet this year; those that aren’t ½ point will be ¼ point. This level of aggressiveness is unprecedented, but with Fed Funds at
¼ % and inflation at 8%, the gap to close is unprecedented, even going back to the ‘70’s. Note, however, that this won’t help fix the supply chain breaks, stop the war in Ukraine, or get OPEC to produce more oil.
In this environment, what kind of CRE loans are “best”. There are a lot of things (terms and conditions) to consider, but on top are loans with fixed rates. Adjustable would be next, and variable rates would be least favorable. Variable rates, however, should be expected to have the lowest initial rate.
Are lenders even lending? In this environment? There are still large amounts of investable capital looking for a home. In fact, the spreads between lenders borrowing rates and lending rates have improved. So yes … lenders are lending. But again, not all lenders are the same, and not all will offer the same types of loans, or with the same terms and conditions.
In our last monthly writing (Mar 29) we offered the-then debenture rate for SBA 504 loans. As a comparative at this time, the debenture rate has zoomed in less than a month. Note that the debenture rate is a reflection of the market, and not a legislated rate set by a government agency policy.
25 Year Purchase Rate: 3.92% 4.68%
25 Year Refinance Rate: 3.93% 4.69%
20 Year Purchase Rate: 3.76% 4.62%
20 Year Refinance Rate: 3.77% 4.63%
10-Year Purchase Rate*: 3.80% 3.81%
*Jan-Feb rate. (The 10-year rate is only published every two months.)
The 7(a) loan is traditionally a variable rate loan. We are in contact with one lender, however, who is offering a fixed rate at this time. Aside from the rate differential, the structure of the 7(a) and 504 loans differs substantially. Borrowers of either of these SBA loans should understand the substantial differences between them in order to use the most applicable loan for their situation. Please call for this discussion if this is you.
FIGHT INFLATION OR HOLD OFF A RECESSION
The Fed has a problem!! The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is forecasting both an economic downturn (recession) and continued high inflation. The bond market is showing the first signs of inversion, pointing to a recession ahead.
The book response for inflation is to raise interest rates and sell bonds. But to head off a recession, they should be lowering rates and buying bonds, thus increasing liquidity in the market. And so, the Fed has no good decision; only the best bad decision.
So, what do we do for financing commercial real estate? What should we anticipate on the part of lenders?
The obvious thing, perhaps, is for lenders to raise rates. But that won’t be enough. The Fed has already announced they intend to raise rates six more times this year (at least), suggesting the traditional ¼ point rise each time. The market, however, has kicked that up to at least one rise of ½ point, and possibly two. A “high” rate at this time won’t keep pace with these increases. To protect themselves, lenders will want either variable rates or adjustable rates, or some version of these.
One of the better terms to look for in this environment is a fixed rate loan. Even if it starts out somewhat higher than a variable rate alternative, the borrower’s protection from potential run-away rate increases may be justified.
Assuming lenders know what we know (a safe assumption) won’t they all be offering fluctuating rates? Well, no!
For those borrowers and projects that qualify, either of two SBA programs offer fixed rates: the 504 program, and to a lesser extent the 7(a) loan. March 504 rates are below. These are the debenture rates; the conventional portion of the loan may vary. (Rates courtesy of TMC Financing, an SBA CDC.)
25 Year Purchase Rate: 3.92%
25 Year Refinance Rate : 3.93%
20 Year Purchase Rate: 3.76%
20 Year Refinance Rate: 3.77%
10-Year Purchase Rate: January-February 3.80% (The 10-year rate is only published every two months.)
The 7(a) loan is traditionally a variable rate loan. We are in contact with one lender, however, who is offering a fixed rate at this time. I expect this will be withdrawn in the near future. Interested parties for this type of loan should step forward sooner rather than later.
SPEEDING UP YOUR LOAN UNDERWRITING PROCESS
The CRE investment market should continue “hot” into 2022 as new capital enters the fray and inflation mount - the question is whether the lending industry can keep up the borrower demand.
“Sellers will continue to drive terms and command short escrow periods for top-notch properties,” per Rob Murphy, Vice President of Structured Finance and Capital Markets at Transwestern. (Source: GlobeSt.com)
Low interest rates have been fueling the CRE market for years. Staffing shortages and the supply chain issues have added additional stress to closing timelines that previously had been met in somewhat an expected fashion. While it’s going to take time for these issues to iron themselves out, users of acquisition debt are in a tough spot given they’re competing with all-cash buyers in this seller’s market for the best properties.
Having the borrower and lender agree on the property’s pro forma cash flow early in the underwriting process is key to expediting closings. Pro forma cash flow determines essential factors for the lender’s decision making. Items like loan size and structure, including any necessary reserves, are needed for the lender to formulate the covenants that are incorporated into the loan docs. Late-in-the-process items in the loan approval process can cause delays in incorporating the covenants, and may cause a hold up in finalizing the loan documents for closing.
Private lenders can be more flexible with loan documentation, whereas institutional lenders typically have more exhaustive, lengthy requirements that can add days to the closing process. Borrowers should also take note of whether private lenders have discretionary authority to fund loans, or whether they have capital partners that must approve lending.
Borrowers should understand the details of the loan-approval process prior to selecting a lender.
Borrowers should also address the issue of staffing shortages by asking lenders if they are hiring contractors to outsource underwriting. And also consider if lenders have expanded their third-party vendor list to include those providers with more manageable turnaround times than the 6-weeks-plus many appraisal and environmental service companies are currently citing due to COVID-19 backlogs. Third-party reports also include title reports and surveys – these should also be ordered early in the due diligence period.
Be Prepared for a More Aggressive Fed
The FOMC made it clear on Wednesday, 2-2, (as clear as they make anything) that rate hikes are imminent. Chairman Powell projected a hawkish tone in his post-meeting press conference leaving open the possibility of several sequential rate hikes this year. A 125 bps (basis points) total rate increase this year (five 25 bps hikes) is now almost a certainty, according to the fed funds futures market.
Wells Fargo’s Economic Department offers the following opinion (1-28-22):
We now think it is likely that the Committee will hike rates by 25 bps at the March 16, May 4 and June 15 policy meetings. Previously, we had anticipated that the FOMC would pause in May.
Along with 25 bp rate hikes in September and December, we now forecast that the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 125 bps
over the course of 2022. We continue to look for 75 bps more of additional rate hikes next year (2023). (Emphasis by MJG)
The Committee (FOMC) is still discussing the steps it will take to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet. But we think it is likely that it will pull forward balance sheet reduction relative to what we had previously anticipated. Specifically, we look for the Committee to announce balance sheet runoff at the July
meeting. Previously, we had expected the announcement to be made in September. Powell noted that the economy is in a much different place today than
when the last tightening cycle commenced in December 2015. Consequently, a more rapid pace of monetary tightening relative to the last cycle seems to be
Are we witnessing the end of easy money – low interest rates - in this cycle? It would seem.
But what do we do in the near term? Banks are flush with cash, and there’s abundant private money positioned for both debt and equity placement in CRE. One of the apparent terms you would look for is a fixed interest rate on your next loan. The expected problem, however, is that lenders know what you know. Fixed rates might be relegated to history for the time being. If offered one, keep an eye out for compensating terms.
This from our friends at TMC Financing regarding their SBA 504 program (as of Jan. 10):
3.21% fixed for 25 yrs. (acquisition)
3.22% for refinancing.
These are the SBA’s debenture rate. The complimentary conventional loan rate from the other lender may differ.
Note that SBA 7(a) loans are variable rate with only a few exceptions. If you have a 7(a) loan that is 3 years old or older and has a variable rate, this is re-financeable without a pre-payment penalty. Contact us about re-financing this into a fixed rate conventional loan.
The Fed’s actual execution of the now-expected tightening is sure to add further uncertainty and confusion to the market. If you’re looking for a port in the storm, look no further than Counsel Mortgage.
Fed to Accelerate Tightening, With as Many as Three Rate Hikes in 2022
As recently as March, the Fed wasn’t expected to raise rates until 2024. Now, the central bank could implement as many as three rate hikes next year.
The Federal Reserve is tightening up its pandemic-era easy money policy and will increase the pace of tapering, a move that could usher in rate hikes earlier than expected, according to a statement released at the conclusion of the central bank’s latest policymaking meeting.
In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, members of the Fed’s policymaking committee voted unanimously to wrap up its massive bond-buying program in half the time it initially anticipated, and projected three rate hikes in 2022. The first hike may be expected as early as Jun-July.
The Fed will double down on its monthly asset purchases. The central bank announced last November that it would begin tapering by $15 billion a month; this amount will now double starting in January. The new pace means the program will conclude in March ’22 rather than in June.
“Just one month after initiating the taper, they have doubled the pace of withdrawal in an effort to conclude by March so they can raise interest rates sooner,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “The omicron variant is a wild card for both Fed policy and the overall economy. Until there is greater clarity about transmissibility and possible economic fallout, the Fed has left themselves room to reverse course – again - should it become necessary”.
Data released earlier this month found that consumer inflation hit a four-decade high, and the Department of Labor reported Tuesday that wholesale prices jumped at a record rate of 9.6% from a year ago.
In recent comments, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has retreated from describing price increases as transitory. “There’s a real risk now… that inflation may be more persistent,” Powell said Wednesday in a press conference after the December FOMC meeting.
In response to questions about the time frame between the end of the taper and the initiation of rate increases, he said it was not a topic on which policymakers have focused yet.
“Financial conditions can change very quickly” and can “fairly rapidly” affect the economy, Powell said. “We’re not going back to the same economy.
The Fed can’t do anything about factory shutdowns in Asia or container ships queued up off the coast of California, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “A lot of the inflationary pressures are on the supply side of the equation, which the Fed can’t do much about,” he said.
Signs of Things to Come
At the beginning of November, the Fed announced that it would begin tapering its $120 billion per month asset purchasing program by $15 billion monthly. The pace of that tapering will remain closely watched over the coming year, as the Fed will continuously be juggling its dual goals of bringing long-term inflation to 2% while supporting the recovery of “full employment.”
While the post-COVID economic recovery has had a quick start, there are a number of predictions that continue to miss, from inflation rates to the pace of job growth. For real estate investors, two things appear clear.
First, that interest rates will rise in the intermediate term—though the pace at which that happens is still unclear.
And second, that the commercial real estate (CRE) asset class will continue to offer a strong hedge against inflation.
Here are some key factors to watch in the coming months, along with several considerations for investors managing their portfolios.
What should CRE investors be watching?
The pace of tapering: IF the Fed tapers bond purchases at its stated $15 billion per month rate with no adjustments, the program will end in mid-2022, which will likely be the triggering event for interest rates to slowly begin increasing.
The labor force participation rate: With the Fed’s stated focus on achieving “maximum employment” and the labor force participation rate still well below pre-COVID levels in spite of the fact that enhanced unemployment benefits have ended and schools have broadly reopened, what the Fed’s role in stimulating labor force participation and growth is uncertain.
The wage growth inflation rate: The Fed has largely dismissed concerns about inflation, which was recently reported at 5.4% year-over-year, as driven by transitory factors, including supply chain bottlenecks. Wage growth is much stickier and can drive longer term inflation, which could pose challenges for the Fed’s low interest rate environment in the coming years.
What do CRE borrowers need to consider?
Current leverage ratios and rates: Many investors have been on the sidelines during this unprecedented economic environment, waiting to make decisions to sell or refinance their properties. For investors with loans several years old, even if their term is still 12 to 24 months from expiration, they should consider whether to do a cash-out or rate refinance while rates could be at their lowest point.
Exchange or portfolio diversification opportunities: CRE investors with strong concentration in a single geography or asset class may want to consider diversifying their portfolio. The IRC 1031 exchange provision has survived the latest versions of the Build Back Better proposals currently being debated in Congress, so taking advantage of an exchange opportunity while rates are historically low, and many lenders are getting increasingly competitive, could provide additional risk mitigation and inflationary hedges.
While interest rates are projected to remain near historic lows for the immediate future, 2022 could be a pivotal year. Real estate investors should be closely monitoring their portfolios and taking advantage of current market conditions and rates, whether they are in a position to buy, sell or refinance. The debt markets are expected to remain quite busy well into next year as investors continue to capitalize on the favorable lending environment while it lasts.
Fed is Expected to Begin Tapering of Asset Purchases!!
The big newsfrom the bank’s bank (the Federal Reserve Board) expected to be released on November 3 at the conclusion of the FOMCs regularly scheduled two day meeting is that the Fed will begin tapering of its asset purchases.
More specifically, it’s expected that the Fed will begin reducing its Treasury security and mortgage-backed security (MBS) purchases by $10B and $5B per month, respectively, starting in December. The Fed currently is, and has been, liquifying the economy to the tune of $120 billion per month by asset purchases. If the FOMC takes a pass on a taper announcement on November 3, a December 15 announcement seems all-but-assured unless the economy comes completely off the rails between now and then. (Source: Wells Fargo Economics Dept.)
The statement from the December 16, 2020 meeting said asset purchases would continue at that pace until "substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. "Walking the tightrope between full (optimal) employment and price stability (inflation-deflation) in narrative if not in fact, Chairman Powell justified the current policy move by explaining "Substantial further progress" has clearly been made on the Fed's inflation goal since last December when inflation was well below the Committee's 2% target. (Currently, at 3.6%, core PCE inflation is at its highest level since 1991. More inclusive measures put inflation in the 5’s, and some number crunchers suggest it’s actually in the 8’s.)
It should be noted that a tapering of asset purchases doesn’t imply a reduction in interest rates. Fed officials were split 50-50 on an interest rate hike in 2022 according to Oxford Economics, calling the meeting “slightly more hawkish.”
But what does that mean for commercial real estate? One of those good and bad news scenarios. “The tapering of bond purchases could result in a selloff of Treasuries,” per David Pascale, Sr. V.P. at George Smith Partners. “This could increase interest rates for virtually all CRE permanent loans, which are typically priced over the 10-Year Treasury. Higher rates could lead to higher cap rates and therefore lower values for CRE assets nationwide.”
“It is assumed that tapering will boost the ten-year rate, as the Fed will stop buying so many treasuries,” per Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “But that is probably a weak correlation at this point. So, mortgage rates are not likely to rise given the ten-year is not likely to rise much from tapering.” A direct rise in the Fed Funds rate, however, should be expected to see a greater than 1:1 percent rise in mortgage rates. (Historically, once the Fed begins raising rates they have continued to do so for six raises over about a year-and-a-half. Normally in ¼ moves, but occasionally ½ point changes if they believe they have gotten behind.) Given the 50-50 split on rate hikes among Fed officials, mortgage rates should stay fairly stable until after the 2022 mid-term election. Some volatility should be expected in the interim.
Where we should expect lenders to begin covering themselves for longer term rate moves is not so much in rates, but in other terms, e.g., fewer fixed rates for 5 to 10 year terms, shorter periods between adjustments on adjustable rate loans, marked-to-market on renewals, etc.
Besides uncertainties created by the Fed, there are ample economic and socio-political activities and events affecting the market to keep lenders busy and borrowers uncertain.
CRE Mortgage Delinquencies Continue Decline
Delinquency rates of mortgages backed by commercial and multifamily properties have broadly improved in recent months, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported this week. “Performance is still property-type dependent, with the properties that saw the most immediate and dramatic impacts from the pandemic – lodging and retail – still experiencing considerably more stress than others, but showing improvement,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s VP of commercial real estate research. “Delinquency rates are down significantly for those property types and remain muted for others.”
Laid against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is saying that it will start to taper off (reduce buying volume or frequency, or both) its purchases of $120 billion of bonds per month “soon”. Additionally, Fed officials were split 50-50 on an interest rate hike (sometime) in 2022 according to Oxford Economics, calling the meeting “slightly more hawkish.”
But what does that mean for commercial real estate? One of those good/bad news scenarios. “The tapering of bond purchases could result in a selloff of Treasuries,” David Pascale, Sr. V.P. at George Smith Partners, told GlobeSt.com. “This could increase interest rates for virtually all CRE permanent loans, which are typically priced over the 10-Year Treasury. Higher rates could lead to higher cap rates and therefore lower values for CRE assets nationwide.”
“It is assumed that tapering will boost the 10-year rate, as the Fed will stop buying so many Treasuries,” Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says. “But that is probably a weak correlation at this point. So, mortgage rates are not likely to rise given the 10-year is not likely to rise much from tapering.”
But the “Fed (also) controls short-term rates, which affects construction loans,” Andrew Twito, V.P. of capital markets at Ryan Companies, told GlobeSt.com. “It might become a little more expensive to borrow to build what we’re building. But there’s still a good spread between the 10-year and a 5 cap. Historically, people look at the spread. Right not it’s not as low as it has been. Based on that, it looks like there’s still a bit of runway on pricing.”
Which is a good thing, especially if you’re building. If construction loan rates rise, Juan Segarra, President and CEO of Foresight Construction Group, predicts a potential “breaking point.”
“Depending on the market we’re talking about, developers will start to reconsider their options in terms of investments,” Segarra says. “I question whether there’s enough demand and money in the market, period, and if interest rates go up, whether it will have a major effect on whether people will invest.”
However, there are sectors like industrial, multifamily, and medical office that have been resilient and driving both higher values and rents, as Sundip Patel, CEO of Avana-EqualSeat, points out. These could act as a buffer to the industry with continuing demand.
Considering a term loan for your CRE investment, and/or maybe a construction or redevelopment/remodeling loan? The CRE lending market acts in anticipation of events. The comments above suggest lenders are already pricing rate hikes into their loans for both construction and CRE investment term and bridge loans. If you’re borrowing window is 6-9 months or less, you may already be out of step with the lending market.
CRE Mortgage Delinquencies Continue Decline
Mortgage delinquency rates, which have been a bellwether of distress in the CRE sector during the pandemic, are continuing to improve. One area of concern, however, is that elevated levels of delinquencies in the lodging and retail sectors are expected to linger as troubled loans slowly work toward resolutions, with some defaults expected.
There are still a lot of “what ifs” that will influence how the amount of distress in CRE will play out. Some believe that distress has peaked and is gradually being worked out. Others think there could be more flare-ups of distress ahead in certain pockets, especially once forbearance and government stimulus disappear. The Delta COVID-19 variant is another wildcard that could significantly weigh on the economic recovery and stall returning momentum within property sectors, notably lodging and even offices.
Despite all of this, the massive wave of distress that some had predicted at the beginning of the pandemic has not materialized. Last December CoStar released data from its predictive modelling that projected 16 different scenarios for the volume of distressed asset sales that could potentially occur over the next five years based on different assumptions. Models ranged from a high of $659 billion to a low of $134 billion with a median topping out at about $321 billion. CoStar has since pulled back from those models, in large part because there are so many unique variables in the current market that are influencing the outcome of troubled loans.
“There are still a lot of uncertainties to monitor, but my new expectation is that the distressed loan volume will be dramatically reduced if we keep the recovery speed that we have right now,” says Xiaojing Li, managing director Risk Analytics at CoStar.
The government stimulus and forbearance have played a big role in curbing distress. In addition, properties across the board are generally carrying lower leverage debt and pre-pandemic underwriting on valuations was sound, which puts borrowers in a better position for recovery.
Limiting supply of distressed opportunities:
Lenders are being more prudent in how they are managing troubled loans, offering different solutions than the wholesale foreclosures that were prevalent in 2008-2010. In some cases, a borrower simply needs more time and continued recovery to move that loan back to performing. Another option is to bring in new equity and/or restructure the loan. A third route is for that troubled loan to be liquidated through a discounted payoff or foreclosure and REO or note sale. Stimulus programs along with lender forbearance and moratoriums on litigation have also given borrowers more time to resolve distressed situations.
Values have held up in large part from simple supply and demand fundamentals. The amount of capital raised for opportunistic investments far outweighs the volume of distressed assets that have emerged.
Abundant liquidity coupled with the prolonged low interest rate environment is also affording borrowers more options. There is a significant volume of capital earmarked for investment that is specifically targeting opportunistic investing through loan sales, distressed real estate sales, recapitalizations, etc. That, coupled with the low interest rate environment, limits the volume of distressed product. As such, we have a notable supply vs. demand imbalance. There’s too much money chasing too few distressed situations.
The deep discounts that many investors had hoped for on distressed REO and note sales have not materialized to a significant extent. Although there have been anecdotal examples of deeply discounted loan sales, the majority of values have held up fairly well.
If you’re an opportunistic investor in this competitive environment, and planning on leveraging your equity, you’ll be served well by staging your financing ahead of the opportunity.
What Does a Commercial Bridge Loan Look Like
We continually get calls & emails from lenders looking for deals to fund. This is normal – the pulse of our business. But in the last couple months the tempo has quickened.
We can arrange funding for a variety of loan types and match them to the type of product and circumstance. Also, different type of lenders are more or less active/aggressive at any point in time depending on their circumstances and market conditions.
One of the loan types that has come into demand lately is a bridge loan. They’re typically used in situations where there’s stress in the situation resulting in a bargain element in the pricing, and time is a material factor. (Our current environment is causing a lot of this.) We have a fair amount of discussion about the terms and conditions of these loans, a lot of it dispelling mis-information floating around the market.
Below are criteria offered directly by one of our commercial bridge lending sources. This is what they want to fund.
LOAN SIZE: $2–$15 million
LIEN POSITION: 1st lien
LOAN-TO-VALUE (LTV): not to exceed 75%
TERM: 12–24 months
EXIT: clearly defined exit strategy.
LOCATION: any U.S. metropolitan market—comparable sales info will be important in the underwriting.
PROPERTY TYPE - OWNER-OCCUPIED: Golf Course & Other Special Use Facilities, Industrial, Office, Medical, Mixed-Use, Retail, Self-Storage.
INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE: Golf Courses & Marinas, Industrial, Medical, Mixed-Use, Mobile Home Parks, Multi-family, Office, Retail, Self-Storage.
COLLATERAL: is cash flowing, commercial real estate (DSCR > 1.0)
DEBT YIELD: (NOI/loan amt) greater than 8%
TIMING: Must close in 10 to 20 business days.
Why & when would you use a bridge? What are the advantages & disadvantages? Are bridge lenders the same as hard money lenders? What else should I be asking? Call Mike at MJG for a preliminary discussion.
CRE Finance Outlook Continues to Brighten
Last month we reported that the CRE financing market was looking up. This month we note that the trend continues.
In a prepared statement April 28 following last month’s FOMC meeting the Fed announced that …
“ Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. … Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit (and cash) to U.S. households and businesses.” (Emphasis by Counsel Mortgage)
The Fed goes on …
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time so that inflation averages 2% over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4% and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.”
While the “longer run” and “moderately above” have escaped definition by the Fed, they have announced they expect to keep Fed Funds at the 0 – 1/4% range through the end of 2022. (Post-mid-term elections we note.) Whether they can hold to this with M1 & M2 levels digesting continuous monetary injections and commodity prices blowing up as they have the past 6 months remains to be seen.
The Fed’s bulldog-with-a-rag obsession of full employment as a primary metric for gauging interest rates is an outmoded theory that was dis-proven back in the ‘70s. With unemployment by illegal immigration increasing at an unverifiable rate of 100k or so a day (or week or month?) tracking unemployment might be considered an invalid parameter. (At some point they’ll have to be accounted for, won’t they?)
But now to some data at hand.
Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial and multifamily properties decreased for the 3rd consecutive month in March, reaching the lowest level since the pandemic began, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest monthly CREF Loan Performance Survey.
Loans backed by lodging and retail properties continue to see the greatest stress, especially lodging. However, delinquencies in both property types improved during March.
“There continues to be significant differences in loan performance by property type,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s VP of commercial real estate research. The same applies for lender type, with CMBS—which has a high concentration of retail and hotel loans—experiencing a higher delinquency rate than other lending classes. For March, 8.7% of CMBS loans were delinquent, down from 9.3% in February. In comparison, the March delinquency rate for GSE loans was 1.2%. MBA said 1.6% of life company loan balances were non-current, down from 2.0%.
So, lenders have money and are actively looking for projects to fund. Rates have bubbled a little reflecting bond market activity, but generally not to deal-breaking levels. This may change rapidly, given the propensity of the Government to launch trillion-dollar giveaways.
When/If considering a loan, opt for a fixed rate if one is offered. Expect the rate to be as much as ½ % higher than a variable rate. The fixed rate/variable rate spread will vary depending on the term of the loan (and other terms). Fixed rate offerings are still out there, but you might have to look around. But it’s not quite a hard as unicorn hunting … yet.
This from one of our SBA 504 friends: (as of 4-18-21)
25 Year Purchase Rate - 3.073%
25 Year Refinance Rate - 3.114%
20 Year Purchase Rate - 3.016%
20 Year Refinance Rate - 3.058%
10-Year Purchase Rate for March & April - 2.684%
Readers of our BLOG for the past several months will notice that the above rates have “bubbled” a bit since Q4-20 or the first of this year.
CRE Finance Outlook Brightens
Seventy-seven percent of participants in the CRE Finance Council's latest survey believe the economy will perform well over the next 12 months. The CRE Finance Council’s Fourth-Quarter 2020 Board of Governors’ Sentiment Index brought a new uptick of optimism about the future of commercial real estate finance. *
CREFC’s Board of Governors consists of 56 senior executives representing the diverse facets of the lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets for CRE, including multifamily. In response to a key survey question on the overall outlook for the U.S. economy, a notable 77% of the Board indicated an expectation that the economy will perform better over the next 12 months. The response marks a turning point in the 2020 trend, as only 53% of survey participants anticipated a better economic performance over the upcoming 12-month period in Q3-20, and a mere 9% shared the sentiment in Q2-20.
Respondents noted their concern, however, over the potential for higher rates over the next 12 months and the effect they could have on businesses in the CRE finance industry. As Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of the CRE Finance Council, said in a prepared statement, “caution is still (sic) top of mind within our lender community, but there is optimism too.” Many of those, however, who follow the Fed are less concerned about rate increases over the next 9 months – the rest of 2021.
So, lenders may be willing to consider loosening their purse strings, but don’t expect a dramatic lowering of the bar for underwriting criteria. There’ll still be a focused eye on the day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month progress with COVID. And the continuing policy announcements out of Washington will be filtered for their potential impact.
Drilling down into the data its clear that survey participants are widely scattered on their opinions of expected performance for the different CRE segments – a fragmented market. All of the segments were liked by some, but none of the segments were liked by all – and the spread of the range was significant! Translated for you, the borrower, this means that finding the right lender for your particular acquisition will take some time and talent.
*Data is courtesy of the CREFC, as published in the Commercial Property Executive, 2-17-21.
SBA Loans – 7(a) & 504 – Both Enhanced by the SBA
Earlier in this message we highlighted the SBA promotion (enhancements) of the 7(a) program as a tool to help small businesses during the COVID-driven economic decline.
Many of the relief provisions under the CARES ACT elevate the SBA 504 program also, including fee reductions and an extension of payment subsidies for new 504 loans.
In a nutshell …
Temporary Fee Reductions
Fee reductions for new 504 loans approved from the date of enactment of the new law (December 27, 2020) through September 30, 2021.
Waives 0.5% Third Party Lender Participation Fee - on loan in senior lien position in 504 projects.
Waives 1.5% CDC processing fee (in debenture pricing).
SBA guidance expected to address handling of all loans currently in process at SBA.
3 months of payments subsidies, capped at $9,000 per loan per month, for new SBA loans approved (February 1, 2021 - September 30, 2021)
Some of these terms may look familiar, some will be new. That’s to be expected – these are different loans, although both are sponsored by the SBA.
What rate structure can you expect today? (504 Interest Rates Feb. 2021)
25 Year Purchase Rate: 2.752%
25 Year Refinance Rate: 2.794%
20 Year Purchase Rate: 2.714%
20 Year Refinance Rate: 2.757%
10-Year Purchase Rate Jan. & Feb.: 2.438%
So, what’s the difference, 504 or 7(a)? Which one should you consider for your situation – which is the best fit? How do you find out? Where do you go? (Yes, you can try Google!) Who should you call? Loaded questions all! Give us a call, or go to Contact at the top of the page & email us.
Jan. 27, 2021
Lenders Re-thinking Assumptions as Pandemic Continues
Now in mid-stream of the pandemic, commercial lenders are looking primarily at industrial, multifamily and selected office deals. But beyond that, other asset classes are drawing lesser interest, even though in some cases lenders are willing to stretch their comfort level.
Some pandemic-driven re-purposing properties are being seen like life sciences conversion projects in nontraditional markets like Phoenix. With the talent present that supports the host of hospitals and medical related services, these projects are attracting attention of investors and lenders alike.
While life sciences are currently hot, people are cooling off of other sectors. Investors need to distinguish between short- and long-term risk in a sector. If lenders and investors agree on an asset class and a location, a deal will have plenty of financing solutions. But if something changes around an asset class, like tenant/user or customer behavior, or government regulations, the lines of agreement may shift.
There are 2 elephants in the room when considering what may cause changes, both short and long term: certainly, the continuing COVID pandemic, and more recently a new presidential administration. A current drill-down into the changes (risks) that may emanate from these 2 sources exhausts to scope of this discussion.
Not long ago senior housing was an attractive investment segment. Now, lending to a senior housing facility that has had COVID deaths could potentially provide an operating risk for the investor, and a reputational risk for the lender.
There is still conventional re-financing capital available for owners who need help, though it may be more expensive than from alternative lenders. The latter group will provide bridge financing temporarily because they believe in a certain asset class’s long-term viability.
For construction projects, it may be more difficult to find capital. Many lenders have vacated the construction arena creating a supply-demand imbalance and liquidity deficiency. Construction loan participants are harder to find, making the capital more expensive.
In addition to the economic and financial risks of a project, lenders are keeping a close eye on pronouncements coming out of Washington. Between coordination/cooperation of the Fed and the Treasury, and new regulation by executive order, lenders are trying to anticipate where and when the next axe will drop.
Meanwhile, still in the game, this just recently offered into the market. The recent Economic Aid Act now includes benefits for the small business borrower that could be advantageous. (Contact us for qualified use of proceeds from these sources.)
For new SBA 7(a) borrowers:
SBA will pay principal and interest on the first 6 months of loans approved between 2/1/2021 and 9/30/2021, capped at $9,000 per month.
Increased SBA Guaranty from 75% to 90%.
Borrower’s SBA Guaranty fee waived.
For new 504 borrowers:
SBA will payprincipal and interest on the first 6 months of payments, up to a maximum $9,000 per month.
SBA fees waived.
Jan 5, 2021
Welcome to 2021 - Where to Go, What to Do
Problems in the hotel, retail and lodging sectors are pushing the commercial mortgage delinquency rate up.
“November did see small increases in newly delinquent retail, lodging and office loans, but at levels far below what was seen at the outset of the pandemic,” per Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research.
Office property delinquencies rose from 2.0% in October to 2.4% in November. Offices may also see a transition after the pandemic as many workers have become accustomed to working from home. Companies will need to decide if they want their employees working from home, bring them back to the office or execute some variation in between.
While it has been estimated it could take a few years for lodging to return to post-pandemic numbers, their recovery is an economic-led one that probably depends on COVID vaccine availability and real-word effectiveness. Once there are widespread vaccines, people should begin to travel again. In fact, there may be pent-up travel demand – but when?
Then there is the retail sector where brick-and-mortar establishments were facing issues with competition from e-commerce before the pandemic hit. With some exceptions, this sector has more of an uphill climb as it grapples with structural change. Many retailers have declared bankruptcy amid the pandemic, with many re-structuring and returning to market with a smaller store footprint. (What are the exceptions you ask? Please do … ask.)Multifamily, with 1.6% balances delinquent in November, was unchanged from October. Multifamily has also been struggling as more people fall into unemployment and Congress shows little signs of continuing to offer more stimulus relief or renter support ad infinitum.
Industrial actually experienced a decrease in delinquencies. In November, 2.5% of the balances of property loans were delinquent, down from 2.6% in October, according to MBA. The sector has been boosted by strong e-commerce demand throughout the pandemic. If investors are flocking to this segment, what do you think this is doing to pricing? Right you are!
Redevelopment and repurposing of the hardest hit and slowest to recover (if ever!) properties will represent the value-added opportunities beginning to show in 2021, after the trillions of Government stimuli, subsidies and bail-outs run their course. These will be target shots reflecting the K-shaped recovery widely anticipated in reference to the multi-furcation of intra-industry and geographic footprint opportunities.
But to our point, from where cometh the capital … the financing … the leverage?
From its December FOMC meeting:
… the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.
And for interest rates supporting all this liquidity, the current Fed thinking of low-to-no (zero) rates through 2023.
So, should we plan on rolling up the truck to the back of the bank and begin shoveling money? No, probably not.
Even with vaccines beginning to roll out, 2021 will be an uncertain year for CRE financing. E-commerce has conventional much of the brick-and-mortar retail under siege. Many offices and hotels are sitting empty.
Across the board all asset classes are suspect now. Lenders are having a hard time finding confidence in the proforma of any deal because of economic and market uncertainties … and markets hate uncertainty!
Conventional lenders, whose rates and cost of capital will remain low, can be expected favor established sponsors (borrowers). But even then they will likely remain disciplined in their underwriting. They will want to confirm that their borrowers have the financial strength and the experience to execute their strategy and have the financial staying power to bridge the valley until economic normalization is achieved.
This hesitancy on the part of conventional lenders opens the door for private lenders to provide bridge and recovery capital. Many private lenders are creating targeted funds in anticipation of lending opportunities. The question is, of course, how to tap them?
Dec. 11, 2020
CRE Lenders Adapt to New Market Dynamics
Capital markets remain healthy with a wide array of active lenders. As the nation progresses through the final months of the year, the lending landscape has vastly improved from the onset of the pandemic which brought lenders and investors to pause as they assessed the impact of COVID. Access to debt capital, though, has been far more abundant than during the global financial crisis (2008-2009), with the Fed taking extreme steps to shore up credit markets and ensure liquidity. Following the Q2-20 uncertainty-driven investment slowdown, buyer-borrowers have become increasingly active with more lenders in the market. While CRE sales activity remains well below activity from a year ago, transaction velocity has climbed about 25% from the Q2-20 to Q3-20.
Lenders have adjusted strategies for a post-pandemic environment. Underwriting criteria has become more conservative (raised the bar) with many lenders facing substantial headwinds, resulting in fewer options for some borrowers. While liquidity has remained plentiful, LTV ratios have contracted as the health crisis has unfolded, now resting in the 50 to 70% range, dependent on the deal and borrower. Debt service coverage ratios have also shifted, rising to the 1.6 percent to 1.9 percent range. In many cases, more weight will be placed on the strength and experience of the borrower than the asset itself.
“Alternative” lenders have narrowed financing gaps left by big banks – a similar market dynamic that emerged in the previous financial recovery of 2009-2012. Government agencies were aggressive originators in recent quarters to account for a much larger share of lending activity. Debt service reserves are now often required for multifamily mortgages and most underwriting assumes no rent growth for a couple years. Community and regional banks have stepped up to close the lending gap as well, financing debt across most property types. Debt funds are also working to fill the void left by larger banks and CMBS lenders, focusing on the more challenged CRE sectors including retail and hospitality. Yield-hungry investors are returning to the market, seeking to lock in low rates in a haven from geopolitical risks and the greater volatility of other asset classes (income-type investments), helping to support sales activity in Q4.
The retail sector is facing greater fragmentation. Many lenders, however, are still working with borrowers, to provide payment relief for troubled assets, limiting foreclosures and greater price fluctuations. Lenders are eager to invest in multifamily and industrial assets shifting their focus to more pandemic-resilient investments. Apartments and industrial properties have been able to draw greater interest with banks and non-agency lenders remaining active originators, most often funding 5-7 year loans with rates in the upper-2 to mid-3% range. Evolving e-commerce trends, challenges in the single-family home market and limited capital expenditure requirements have helped to ensure financing remains available at favorable terms for both asset classes. The agencies have a combined multifamily lending cap of $140 billion in 2021, with at least 50% of originations dedicated to affordable housing. Most lenders have been more selective when assessing office properties in spite of strong rent collections, favoring suburban office deals while requiring LTVs closer to 50% for buildings in larger downtown markets.
Record-low interest rates have encouraged investment activity. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are originating loans in the upper-2 to low-3% range for gateway and secondary markets, while interest rates in smaller markets can reach the mid-3 percent territory for well-capitalized buyers. Most banks, credit unions and CMBS lenders are offering debt in the 3.25 to 4.25% range, and debt funds start slightly higher in the 3.5 to 4% territory.
The Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep the federal funds rate near zero through at least 2023 should hold interest rates near historical lows over the coming quarters, providing CRE investors with compelling risk-adjusted returns, particularly if leveraged, in contrast with other asset classes (stocks & bonds).
Dec. 3, 2020
Applying for a Loan in the COVID Environment
Lenders have raised the bar on underwriting guidelines in recent years, and more specifically in the COVID era. Back in the good ‘ole days, prior to the Great Recession and now COVID, lenders did what might be now described as a cursory job of underwriting the borrower. They typically asked for a simple financial statement, personal & business, with a credit check, and that was the extent of the credit items required.
Back then, they focused almost exclusively on the pros and cons of the property. And if they liked the risks associated with the property, it was very likely the loan would be approved with only a glance at the borrower.
But as you undoubtedly know all that has changed in recent years. In today’s environment, lenders have upped their borrower documentation considerably requiring an extensive amount of information about the borrower.
Under today’s lender guidelines the borrower would do themselves a favor if they were proactive about providing their personal documentation at the same time as the property documentation. Doing so strongly suggests that you, the borrower, are a knowledgeable and seasoned investor. Instead of slowly dripping in the required documents over a couple of weeks or so, have them all prepared to give to the lender right from the get-go.
And what might you expect the current menu of items to be?
1. A complete, professional looking personal financial statement. Each lender has different requirements but they typically require the borrower’s net worth to be equal to or greater than the loan amount. Some require a borrower’s net worth to be as much as two times the proposed loan amount. Ask the lender before you send him your financial statement what is the minimum net worth to loan ratio. They should know this and be willing to give it to you. If your net worth exceeds this ratio then proceed with sending him all your personal documentation.
2. Liquid Assets: Here each lender is different also, but they typically require liquid assets showing on the borrower’s balance sheet equal to 6 to 12 months of debt service. Again, find out what your lender requires before signing the application.
3. Complete an REO (real estate owned) Schedule: Most lenders now create a global cash flow spreadsheet on the borrower. They want to see if the prospective borrower is generating a positive cash flow, or slowly draining himself of all his cash. For an active or experienced investor, much of the detail required to determine his global cash flow comes from the REO schedule. Prepare the REO schedule before you begin talking to lenders so that when they ask for it, it’s ready for them.
4. Credit Rating: Provide a written explanation of any 30-day late payments: Run a credit report on yourself before you start looking for a lender. Find out your credit score. Most lenders require that your credit score be a minimum of 680. If yours is not that high, provide a good written explanation of circumstances leading to the lower rating.
5. Explain Past Tax Liens, Judgments, Litigation: Have written explanations with back-up documentation already prepared before you sign the application. Give the prospective lender your explanations and have him verify in advance of signing your application that your explanations are satisfactory and will not impact loan approval. Do it before you sign the application when you have the most negotiating power, not after when you have little or none.
6. Tax Returns, not just Schedule 1040s, signed and dated including all K-1s: Lenders want ALL of your federal tax returns, not just parts of them. This includes providing all of your K-1s. To speed up the process get this done correctly the first time.
“Time kills deals!”
A lengthy, drawn out loan underwriting process pending documentation to show up will at the very least move your deal to the bottom of the pile. And it has the potential of killing the deal altogether. These borrower underwriting guidelines can be verified quickly if the borrower is proactive and anticipates what the lender is going to require. A borrower should work towards making the lender’s process as easy as possible.
Many if not most borrowers go to the lender expecting them to ask for what they want … which they’ll do. But you’ll be ahead of the game if you approach them with the above docs ready & available.
In today’s COVID environment, many lenders conduct interviews by phone, or lately by ZOOM. Documents requested are then asked to be scanned and emailed – plan on this. Don’t offer to FAX them – legibility falls off rapidly during FAXing causing repeat effort. If you don’t have a scanner, get one – a small investment to make to get your loan. And don’t try to scan documents with your phone. Your phone program treats each page of a document as a photo, not a document. For instance, a 20-page document when received, has twenty 1-page files, not one 20-page file. Reassembling this doc takes extra time to process your loan, and your loan is either shuffled off to an over-worked assistant or stuffed to the bottom of the pile.
Sept. 29, 2020
Outstanding CRE Debt Continues to Increase, In Spite of Tighter Credit Standards
Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, therefore a substantial tightening in credit conditions could cut the current recovery short. The latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey points to banks tightening credit across all major loan categories. But loans at commercial banks account for only about 30% of the total credit extended to the U.S. private non-financial sector. Debt capital markets are more or less wide open again, which has helped keep credit flowing to larger businesses, and to households indirectly.
The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose by $43.6 billion to $3.76 trillion, or 1.2% increase, during Q2-20, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding quarterly report. Multifamily mortgage debt alone increased $32.2 billion to $1.6 trillion from Q1.
Despite a drop-off in originations during Q2, “the total amount of mortgage debt outstanding continued to rise,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s VP of commercial real estate research. “The pandemic is having different impacts on various property types and capital sources. Loans backed by multifamily properties accounted for almost three-quarters of the total growth, and Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA accounted for nearly three-quarters of that amount.”
The four largest lender groups are:
Aug. 28, 2020
How Bad is It ... ?
Commercial real estate (CRE) and multifamily loan originations fell almost 48% year-over-year in the second quarter, and 31% vs. Q1-20, the result of a pandemic-related temporary freeze in lending and transaction markets between mid-March through early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn (MBA) quarterly survey. (How “temporary” is it?)
Liquidity returned to the market later in the quarter, and multifamily-agency and certain industrial deals “were bright spots” during the three-month period (Q2), per the CBRE Lending Momentum Index. Other sectors suffered, however, as lenders grew more selective in their deal and property-type financing choices.
“While we have seen a steady improvement in the number of loan applications over the past five weeks, we anticipate that commercial mortgage markets will remain muted over the near-term, especially for retail and hospitality properties, as well as value-added deals which face the greatest underwriting challenges,” per Brian Stoffers, head of debt and structured finance for capital markets at CBRE.
The overall commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) delinquency rate rose to just under 6.4% in June, up from 1.2% in March (About a 430% increase ladies and gentlemen.) June delinquencies reached 22.8% in the hotel sector and 17.7% among retail outlets.
Banks were the source of more than 70% of loan originations in Q2, a lending share that has more than doubled from recent averages. Much of that growth was driven by regional banks, according to a CBRE report.
Life insurance companies had the second largest share of loan originations with 23%, down slightly from the second quarter in 2019. Most loans in this sector were conservative with loan-to-value ratios of 60% or less.
CMBS conduit lenders struggled to rebuild deal pipelines following the market disruption and the sharp rise in spreads during March and April. Additionally, loan underwriting remains challenging. Industry-wide CMBS issuance was close to $30 billion in H1 2020, the slowest pace since 2016.”
Alternative lenders, including debt funds, mortgage real estate investment trusts and finance companies, sourced few loans in the second quarter with some of those lenders struggling with liquidity issues, according to the report.
Across all sources, the average loan-to-value ratio fell, while the average debt service coverage ratio and debt yield rose – raising the bar!
The changes in loan underwriting measures reflected the underlying property type composition. While both multifamily and commercial underwriting were more conservative, the overall results were skewed by a higher proportion of multifamily loans which tend to be underwritten slightly more aggressively than commercial ones.
Meanwhile at Counsel Mortgage, we’re anticipating closing a gas station acquisition loan in New Orleans in the next week or two for $1.3mm underwritten at 5.5%. The lender is out-of-state. (A short delay was caused by a couple of hurricanes!)
DISCLOSURE: Michael Green, Designated Broker of MJG, is also a Commercial Loan Originator with the Counsel Mortgage Gp. in Scottsdale AZ.)
And we’re looking for a term sheet any day for the ground-up construction of a gas station/c-store and carwash in Arizona. The $5.6mm project is expected to be underwritten for about a $4.5mm loan, or 80% LTV, requiring about $1.1mm equity-in from the borrower/sponsor. The construction loan will automatically roll to a permanent loan upon completion of construction. The borrower is an out-of-state multiple-store operator who is relocating to AZ. We’re pleased to have been able to facilitate site selection, represent the borrower with city officials for PAD uses, and counsel the borrower in the selection of the architect, contractors and lender. (Michael Green is also a commercial real estate broker and represented the borrower in the acquisition of the land.) Much of the development process has already been done. Once the term sheet is approved, we expect to clear underwriting in 3-4 months (even with COVID, and the national election on the way). We enjoy previous relationships with the team members selected. Effective communication within the group is essential to meeting time and budgetary targets for a successful project. Ground breaking is expected be in Q1-21 with a construction timeline of 4-6 months. Our unspoken and uncontracted commitment to our client is to stay engaged in the process through receipt of the Certificate of Occupancy.
Many of you reading this will recognize gas stations as a particularly difficult sub-segment of retail to finance at any time. In our particular environment, some would say impossible.
July 27, 2020
Who Has Money to Lend, and How Do You Get It?
Why Banks are Puckered
Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers are expected to close $248 billion of loans
backed by income-producing properties in 2020, a 59% decline from 2019’s record volume of
$601 billion, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported.
Total multifamily lending alone, which includes some loans made by small and midsize banks
not captured in the overall total, is forecast to fall 42% this year. MBA anticipates a partial
rebound in lending volumes in 2021, with commercial/multifamily lending rising to $390 billion.
“The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt commercial and multifamily real estate
markets,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s VP for commercial real estate research. He said NOI,
values and cap rates across the different property types are “expected to experience varying
levels of stress in the months ahead, with hotel and retail properties already being the hardest
Snowballing distress in commercial real estate loans are threatening to become an avalanche
that could overwhelm banks.
Getting a glimpse behind the curtain on how bank loans are performing isn’t easy. “It’s amazing
that we have gone from the great financial crisis to now and still have no better transparency
into the banks at a granular level as we do with CMBS,” says K.C. Conway, director of research
and corporate engagement at the University of Alabama’s Alabama Center for Real Estate
(ACRE) and chief economist for the CCIM Institute. Some banks are more transparent than
others and there is definitely a lag in the data, he says.
In addition, the FDIC is allowing banks to forbear on loans and not have to report them as
troubled loans for up to 180 days. “We’re not going to see anything big show up in the numbers
until this deferral period expires,” says Johannes Moller, director in North American banks, at
Fitch Ratings. The next big question is how the Federal Reserve is going to act and whether
there will be further forbearance, which will help to determine when clarity on defaults on
loans held by banks will be revealed, he says. (According to the Mortgage Bankers Association,
commercial banks currently holding 39 percent of the $3.7 trillion in commercial/multifamily
outstanding mortgage debt in the U.S.)
The nation’s largest banks are facing a possible $47.6 billion loan loss on commercial real
estate over the next two years in the worst-case scenario for economic fallout from the
coronavirus, according to the latest stress test results from the Federal Reserve Board.
The U.S. central bank’s regulatory body considered three progressively worse downside
scenarios in determining banks’ abilities to withstand the current crisis. In each case, the
results suggest that commercial real estate will take large losses.
The results are not designed to be forecasts but are a measure of the money banks need to
have on hand to survive the pandemic. Banks could take a hit on loans beyond commercial
real estate. In total, losses in the three scenarios ranged from $560 billion to $700 billion —
or about 47% to 57% of banks’ retained earnings and additional paid-in capital. (Do you think
banks want to increase their exposure?)
Even though all 33 of the banking groups in the stress test exceeded the required minimum
capital and leverage ratios, the Fed took several actions to ensure large banks don’t deplete
The Fed is forcing institutions to re-evaluate their longer-term capital plans.
The Fed also is capping dividend payments to the amount paid in the second quarter
and is further limiting them to an amount based on recent earnings
Lastly, for Q3-20 the Fed is requiring large banks to preserve capital by suspending
“Actions by the board to preserve the high levels of capital in the U.S. banking system are an
acknowledgment of both the strength of our largest banks as well as the high degree of
uncertainty we face,” Randal Quarles, vice chair of supervision for the Fed’s board of
governors, said in a statement.
In contrast to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the nation’s largest banks entered the pandemic
with high levels of capital and liquidity: $1.2 trillion in common equity and $3.3 trillion in
high-quality liquid assets, Quarles noted.
Fed Plans to Further Nationalize the Economy
When your only tool is a hammer, every problem becomes a nail!
So, how many ways can the Fed provide liquidity, or potential liquidity if and when needed?
The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday (7-28-20) announced an extension through December
31 of its lending facilities that were scheduled to expire on or around September 30. The three month
extension will facilitate planning by potential facility participants and provide certainty
that the facilities will continue to be available to help the economy recover from the COVID-19
The Board's lending facilities have provided a critical backstop, stabilizing and substantially
improving market functioning and enhancing the flow of credit to households, businesses, and
state and local governments.
The extensions apply to:
the Primary Dealer Credit Facility,
the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility,
the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility,
the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility,
the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility,
the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility,
and the Main Street Lending Program.
The Municipal Liquidity Facility is already set to expire on December 31, with the Commercial
Paper Funding Facility set to expire on March 17, 2021.
Don’t ask what this does to the USD. That’s a different discussion.
And Now to the Money
Yet, since last March Gantry has closed 67 CRE loans totaling nearly $400 million! Who’s Gantry
you asked – and rightfully so? It so happens that Gantry Inc. is the largest private mortgage
banking firm in the country! Some 30 years in the making … 9 offices nationally (including
Phoenix), originating an average of $4 billion per year. Who knew!
At Counsel Mortgage we have not only heard of them, but also of the not-so-highly ranked. If,
or as, banks may go out of business, current money center banks (the “big boy banks”, e.g.,
Wells Fargo, BofA, etc.) pull back acceptance of loan apps pending more data points, and we
begin to have an environment reflective of 2008-2009, banks step aside and non-bank lenders
fill in the gap. So how do you finance the opportunities we all know are coming? With
“alternative” lenders, of course. These are not all hard money lenders, or bridge lenders with
hard money terms. Finding them may be more of a challenge, especially when you’re looking
for the “right fit”, even with the internet. And working with them is taming a different kind of
beast than your familiar local bank or credit union.
June 30, 2020
Not a Surprise, But What To Do?
The repeat CRE sales of $39.1 billion for the first 5 months of 2020 fell 24.2% from the same time a year earlier, according to the latest monthly CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices.
This is the first look at the year’s commercial real estate pricing trends, calculated by using the price change from the pair of first and second sales of properties sold multiple times. The indices are based on 538 repeat sales in May and more than 227,324 since 1996.
Volume held up generally well vs. the prior year for the first 3 months of 2020, but dropped precipitously in April and May reflecting overall caution among investors as well as physical challenges in transacting deals in a lockdown. The shrinkage in deal volume was felt across the size and building-quality spectrum.
Whether you’re an investor with a now-underperforming property due to tenant late pays (or none at all), or an owner-occupant suffering from lost sales, there’s a need among CRE owners for liquidity, and/or increased cash flow. There’s a reluctance to sell properties due to the unknown level of pricing – yes eroded, but how bad?
Do you really want to apply for the next Government lifeline? Talk about dancing with the devil!
The case for refinancing, and why it’s the hot topic in CRE.
With historically low rates there’s significant value in the ability to convert loans to full term or partial interest-only at this time. For some owners and operators, better net cash flow after debt service is a priority, and for some, return of equity from debt refinance (cash out) is valuable. With a long-term hold strategy, refinancing helps hold onto great assets at a low cost of debt. Further, refinancing generates a tax-free cash flow distribution to the borrower (We don’t give tax advice – check with your accountant on this.) With cash out, excess proceeds from refinancing can be reinvested in any asset class over any time period without being subject to the pressure of 1031 exchange time frames or Opportunity Zone criteria.
Most often, lenders are paying close attention to including reserve holdbacks for debt service, operating expenses, or taxes and insurance at closing. They are structuring these reserve escrows to cover between 6-12 months, unless the transaction is low leverage. Lenders are also stressing the need to understand the real estate owned schedule, and if owners are experiencing any distress from other assets.
There is considerable liquidity in long term fixed rate debt for stabilized product, like multifamily or industrial. Office, on the other hand, is seeing more debt availability for stronger markets, multi-tenant, national vs. local tenants, and safe building operation protocols to combat COVID. Other product types (hotel, retail, land, etc.) have proven to be more difficult.
Deals that had been finding a home with marginal sponsors, transactions with rent assumptions leading the market (“Blue Sky” projections), or containing aggressive lease-up time frames, are not currently getting done. Those remaining in the market have been making loans “selectively” based on prior relationships or disciplined underwriting. Lenders have commented that pricing and leverage are now more in line with perceived risk of the business plan and asset. Leverage has reduced 5%-10% and pricing has expanded 0.50%-1.50%.
In today’s environment there are no easy choices … only hard choices, and harder choices. You might find that having an ally, a confidant, a counselor is a good, if not necessary, member to have on your team.
Commercial Mortgage Financing in the Post-COVID-19 World
As I commented only a couple letters ago, pre-COVID-19 (paraphrased) …
“It’s very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yet, here we are!
While we’re much more accurate reporting the past and extrapolating into the future, the recent data is largely irrelevant, and hence the process doesn’t serve us at this time. However, before we fly in the face of popular opinion, we feel obliged to share with you what that popular opinion is.
“We are not lending any new money,” said David Druey, Centennial Florida
Regional President, Pompano Beach FL. (Source: GlobeSt.com 4-13-20)
We could source many and varied others, but this encapsulates it.
We, however, respectively disagree!
Our own grass roots, boots-on-the ground experience tells us differently. Since Feb 26, we’ve initiated and secured 5 commercial loans, all with banks (as opposed to non-bank lenders). Three are SBA 7(a) loans … one for a gas station acquisition in New Orleans (a COVID-19 hotspot), one to re-fi an existing conventional loan with cash-out to the borrower, and one for construction of a gas station/c-store & carwash in the Phoenix metro market. The two conventional loans are both re-fi’s, one of a hard money loan on a retail single tenant property owned less than 3 months by the out-of-state borrower, and one to re-fi 2 gas stations in AZ.
The notable thing is not that we found funding sources for these loans, but that we had multiple offers!
Which goes to the point … banks are liquid. There were more than adequately flush before COVID-19, and all the Government & Fed pumping of money into the system has made them more so. Now that interest rates are as low as we might see them before they go negative (if they do), lenders are “passing the savings on to you”. (It’s not the rate, it’s the spread.) Borrowing money at ¼ point means nothing if banks can’t lend it out. Prime is still 3.25%.
Case in point … one of our conventional re-fi’s had fixed rate bids of the 5-year Treasury + 3%, and another of the 5-year Treasury 3.5%. (The 5-year Treasury is about 50 basis points – ½%.)
What isn’t widely discussed is the loosening of Government Agency regulations on the banking industry. Banks have more of a free rein in saving the economy – the Government doesn’t want a repeat of 2008-2009. It’s commonly known by now that banks are over-run with PPP loan processing, and administrating other Government programs intended to essentially nationalize our economy. Government inefficiencies under stress, however, are being passed down to the lenders, effectively making federally charted banks quasi Government agencies. Lenders we talk with, however, want very badly to make “real loans”. It’s just that nobody is coming forth to apply – But how do you make it through the quagmire to get to the right person? Who is the right person? And when you leave a message, you never get a call back … then what? Is it not what you know, but who you know? Maybe … now more than usual, and when will usual come around again?
How’s the COVID-19 Credit Markets?
So much happening so fast – COVID-19 … current and downstream effects! We’ll try to sift through the clutter and focus on those factors affecting our market over the next few month. As I review data accumulated since our last letter, this will be a challenge. So here we go.
The primary factor affecting the market’s current negative behavior is the coronavirus … COVID-19. So the primary battle to be won is to neutralize this threat to the economy. Prior to the emergence of COVID-19 the economy was on fairly firm ground. Some pluses & minuses here-n-there, but largely stable. Retaining the economy’s structural framework through the crisis is paramount to positioning for a quick resurgence to where we left off. The Government’s quick actions over the last couple weeks have been directed to that end. We’ll be able to gauge the success of these actions
From where will the glimmers of hope originate? Why from day-to-day improvement in the control & ultimately eradication of the coronavirus, of course. As incremental improvements are made in winning the COVID-19 war, the economy will be put back on track with incremental improvements, e.g., lifting of travel restrictions, various segments of businesses will be allowed to re-open, specific geographical areas of the country are expected to begin hiring or reinstating employment.
But the Government is fighting to retain the economic structure with the few weapons it has –money … debt money. Be it funded from fiscal or monetary sources. The current legislatively approved commitment is about $3 trillion. (This is a day-to-day moving target.) But where does it go? Will this indeed shore up the main street economy or become another Wall Street boondoggle like all the QE’s of not long ago. We've all heard by now the loans and grants to come froth from the Government, totaling some $2.2 trillion in the most recent CARES Act. The Treasury swapping bonds and notes with the Fed in exchange for money that it then distributes through Government agencies to recipients, or some cases direct to you & me. So many programs ... so many arrows on a flow chart to track the money. Total Government commitments approved & funded to date total about $3 trillion. And we haven't seen the end.
What isn’t spelled out very well, however, is that somewhere in the Source-Recipient transfer is about $450 billion going to the Fed via the Treasury who is then to fund loans originated by banks. The way banking works is that this money can be leveraged 10X between the Fed and the banks. That $450 billion, then, represents $4.5 trillion of potential loans. That makes the liquidity capacity of the CARES Act closer to $6-7 trillion than the advertised $2.3 trillion. Clearly a minor oversight in public disclosure. That additional $4 trillion net of additional liquidity could very well find its way to supporting financial markets. We'll have more on the downstream impact of this in an upcoming Blue Paper. If you're not a Blue Papersubscriber and would like to receive this report, just click on "Contact" at the top of the page, complete the contact info, and you'll be added to this readership - it's free! (Also EZ to unsubscribe if you don't care for it.)
But our job at hand is to remain informed, optimistic, and ready to resume life as we know it when circumstances permit.
Along that line … in every chaotic event there is opportunity!
Cloistered away as well are, however, our day-to-day emotional pulse is limited by sources that represent the mood of the nation, whether a small circle of family & friends or the national media – not a positive environment. We wonder is there really “normal” work being done out there? How much longer might this go on? How bad can “bad” get? No answers … only speculative opinion. War is hell!
But this from the front lines:
We’ve discussed this topic with 3 commercial appraisers we know well in the AZ market. They’re working with various adjustments to data to reflect the anticipated situation, but nothing concrete … with one exception.
One of the appraisers we have a long-standing relationship with is the AZ rep for a national valuation company. His company has developed a model reflecting just what we’re talking about. It was originally developed and released internally several weeks ago, and has been updated weekly. This appraiser was kind (trusting) enough to send us a copy of their most recent report – to be treated of course with confidentiality. So this is not something we can share with you. We haven’t reviewed it yet, but will do so in the very near future. We suspect we’ll be able to apply the methodologies to current properties and businesses for acquisition and re-financing. (This area is also a big concern to folks who might want to be selling their properties for the same reason.) This also has direct application to the lending business. For underwriting, the primary basis their loan offers is the ability to service the loan from the underlying business, or property in the case of a rental.
HOW SHOULD CRE INVESTORS PREPARE FOR THE NEXT DOWNTURN
A recession is unlikely to hit this year, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t start preparing. Experts say that this is the perfect time for investors to reevaluate portfolio performance to prepare for the next downturn—whenever it may come.
Real estate is a cyclical industry, and it is impossible to predict exactly when a downturn will happen. As was once said by a well-known and celebrated source (paraphrased) …
“It’s very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Most experts agree that the current economic expansion began in June 2009, and last summer made it 10 years old, the longest in U.S. history,” Ed Hanley, president of Hanley Investment Group, recently told GlobeSt.com. “An economic downturn doesn’t impact every market and every investment the same. So, as the current election year unfolds and whether a downturn is around the corner or not, this is the perfect time to evaluate the current performance of your portfolio, and (determine) how to best position it for the future.”
There you have it! Now, Mr. & Mrs. real estate investor, you know just what to do to secure your real estate portfolio against the downturn that is sure to come … just evaluate the current performance.
But what does that mean … exactly?
A portfolio evaluation may include deferred repairs and preventative maintenance, and also perhaps some upgrades where needed, all of which can be essential to tenant retention during a correction. Mr. Hanley continues, “Properly evaluating capital expenditures now to retain tenants and stable occupancy levels may put you in a better position for the next downturn or market correction. And of course with capital improvements comes the question of how to pay for them, cash or debt - access your liquidity pool or increase your leverage.
Of course, the CRE fundamentals are much different (and better) in this cycle than at the end of the last cycle, but some of the lessons learned during the last downturn are still important. In the last cycle, one of the biggest mistakes investors made was being over-leveraged or not having sufficient reserves to weather an economic downturn. Most CRE investments should be performing well and have good cash positions.
Although interest rates remain at historic lows, it is prudent to review current loan terms now to prevent any potential inability to refinance an existing loan in the future, or the need to refinance in a not-so-permissive environment.
A couple years we refinanced two properties for an investor. These were stabilized and had been performing well for several years. The loans were originally placed when the investor bought the properties several years before and had substantially higher interest rates. The apparent goal was to reduce his payments, but in the process we found that his capital appreciation and amortization had reduced his leverage level to about 50%. We refi’ed him back to a modest 70% LTV and were able to get him $1,000,000 cash for his next investment. At that stage of the cycle he was looking to add to his holdings. That investor recently contacted us to re-fi two more of his properties with a similar outcome anticipated. While we expect to be successful in the re-financing, we cautioned him on maxing out his leverage at this stage of the cycle when cap rates are low (prices high) and banks are aggressively funding loans with “cheap” money – typical behaviors at end-of-cycles.
The bottom line in surviving a downturn is to prepare for one. Recognize that a downturn, correction, re-cycling the cycle (your choice of terms) is a process, not an event. (Going through it is a process; historians will call it an event.) Part of managing the survival is being in a position to take advantage of opportunities that will occur along the way. A little cash will go a long way then.
Incidentally, our $1,000,000 cash-out investor still has his $1,000,000 cash in the bank. He hasn’t found that next investment yet. So why re-fi the other 2 properties now? To be even better prepared to not just survive, but to capture more of those end-of-cycle opportunities during the process – and to lower his payments!
Footnote: We have written about black swan events earlier and the inability to forecast them, or the impact they may have economically, and financially on the various markets. The current caronavirus outbreak is such a swan. How this will impact the CRE and CRE lending markets is unknown – perhaps suspected, but unknown. We encourage all to take prudent healthcare precautions in your day-to-day activities. We understand that the flu is more of a menace than the coronavirus, and that the preventative measures are the same for each.
What About That “Other” SBA Loan?
Most people talk about SBA loans as if there’s only one, and that typically being the 7(a). The other equally useful in the right situation is the 504. This doesn’t get much exposure, probably because it’s more complex. I recently had the occasion to review a 504 with a borrower (my client) and a bank BDO. A brief overview of the loan is offered for orientation:
The 504 is really two loans packaged as one. (Now you begin to see why it can be confusing.) Both are backed by real estate – no business only acquisitions using this one. The 1st deed of trust (DOT) backed loan is really a conventional loan made by the bank. This typically to 50% of the total loan. The 2nd DOT-backed loan is made by the SBA through a Government chartered Certified Development Company (CDC). The SBA loan is actually funded by debentures (bonds) sold in the debt market – hence a market driven rate, not a legislated or statutory rate, e.g., the 7(a). The CDC 2nd funds (up to) 40% of the total loan amount. This leaves the borrowers equity-in to be 10% (or possibly higher). Depending on the use of proceeds (acquisition, construction, etc.) the allocations of participation may vary.
The rates for the two loans don’t have to be, and usually aren’t, equal. Other variables have to do with the term of the two loans and pre-payment penalties. In evaluating the rates you’ll hear the term ‘blended rate”. This is a blending or averaging of the two loans rates and amounts of money funded at each rate.
One of the attractions of 504s is the size of the loan that can be obtained. Not well known is that the SBA guarantee in the case of the 7(a), and the amount of the 2nd funded in the case of the 504 cannot exceed $5mm. However, if the 504 only uses 40% of the total loan amount, the total loan size can be as high as $12.5m.
The 504 can be used for acquisitions of existing businesses with real estate, or construction of new real estate. The loan has a construction (pre-existing development) component that can be used for the construction of a project and upon completion, rolled into the permanent loan.
Pre-funding ahead of the SBA issuance of the debenture is accomplished by a bridge loan from the lending bank. Because the debenture is funded in the future, the actual rate will be unknown until funding is complete. Market movements (volatility) during the bridge funding period in nominal, typically measured in basis points.
For rate-only comparisons today:
504 25-year debenture purchase rate (December’s auction): 3.64%
Lender’s 1st DOT rate: 4.5-4.75%
(The blended 504 rate is somewhere in between.)
7(a) rate: This loan is made by the lender (bank) at a rate not to exceed Prime + 2.75%. (SBA guideline).
Prime today is 4.75%. How much each particular loan is priced over Prime “depends”!!
Generally, if your project doesn’t exceed about $5.8mm (85% LTV of acquisition or construction), you’ll find a 7(a) easier to use, although with a higher rate, but more accommodating (managing) once on the books.) It’s also cleaner to analyze ahead of the decision.
Banks are Reverting to Old Bad Habits
Banks could be slipping into old bad habits. Last year, as interest rates fell, banks started to loosen underwriting standards reminiscent of the last cycle—the kinds of missteps that ultimately led to the great recession. This includes high loan-to-value ratios as well as skipping essential steps, like income verification – no-doc loans are back in the CRE lending market!
“The banks are starting to get a little bit scary. You are starting to see the behavior that you saw in 2006 and 2007 again,” says Steve Jacobs, CEO of Ten-X Commercial in an interview with GlobeSt.com”.
I don’t think this is a mainstream trend - yet, but it’s something that I’ve noticed recently. This ramps up buyer activity and compresses cap rates, pushing pricing up. This translates into a buyer maybe paying a 4-cap for a property when it really should be a 5-cap. This is when it gets dangerous. I’m told this dynamic is also present in the residential market, but at the commercial desk we only observe the residential market from a distance.
On the commercial side, I’m seeing lenders that were holding tight at the 60% or 65% loan to cost or loan to value starting to play in the 70% or 85% range, depending on the asset class and pre-construction vs. existing income-stable properties. I’ve seen lenders wonder aloud of 85-90% loans, but not seen anything actually close at these levels.
It is hard to say what is driving this trend—especially since the downfall of the last cycle wasn’t so long ago. It could be the reduction in interest rates, which made money cheap while demand remains high - it may stem from that. Generally as rates drop banks make less money; spreads get compressed. Lenders operating aggressively in low rate environments may be sacrificing profit for market share. If so, any one bank can’t conduct this strategy for long. This being the case, you may find significant rate spreads in funding offers. (Don’t forget to check all the other covenants in their proposal – ask questions.)
Low Interest Rates Spur More Refinancing Activity
Even more favorable rates have unleashed a fresh wave of refinancing activity during H2-19.
Borrowers have been enjoying a low interest rate environment for some time. Yet the Fed’s last 3 rate cuts in H2-19 have stoked a surge in refinancing activity.
The Federal Reserve kicked off the first of three rate cuts in late July, which subsequently pulled commercial real estate lending rates lower in the third quarter. Notably, the 10-year Treasury dropped by 50 basis points in August to a near cyclical record low of 1.47%. The favorable rates have unleashed a fresh wave of refinancing activity. Borrowers are paying off loans early to take advantage of the low rates.
For example, some of the 10-year loans that were done 7 years ago were done at 5.5 % or so, whereas borrowers now have an opportunity to refinance at sub-4%. So, the math on that is pretty simple, even if you factor in a small pre-payment penalty for an early exit.
The current refinancing activity is widespread across asset classes. For example, Fitch Ratings noted that the pace of defeasance on CMBS 2.0 loans surged following the July rate cut, with Q3-19 volume that totaled $3.92 billion. Overall, the 2019 defeasance volume for CMBS 2.0 deals through the third quarter was on par with the full-year 2018 activity at $10.9 billion.
Other data sources show a similar spike in activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the volume of commercial/multifamily mortgage originations in Q3 jumped 24% year-over-year, according to its most recent quarterly survey of commercial/multifamily mortgage originations. Research firm Real Capital Analytics reported an even higher increase on year-to-date refinancing transactions through the first three quarters that was up 63% year-over-year.
Spreads have narrowed. For example, there was a window in Q3 where some uncertainty on reaching lending caps caused Fannie and Freddie to widen spreads in order to slow lending volume. However, agency spreads have narrowed and, along with the Feds’ rate reduction, it remains a very low rate environment.
Current refinancing deals are offering more than just savings on lower rates. Borrowers are taking advantage of other benefits when refinancing deals. Some are shifting to non-recourse, moving out of short-term floating debt and into longer-term fixed-rate financing, or getting longer interest-only periods, which helps to drive cash flow and returns.
Many owners are also using refinancing as a means to pull equity out of a property in cases where values have increased. That strategy has become a popular alternative to selling assets in the current market, where it has become more challenging to redeploy capital into new real estate investments.
If you’re sitting on an asset and you don’t intend to sell, it’s an opportune time to term-out at more attractive financing. Debt markets also appear to be marking properties at higher valuations than an owner could get in the sale market, so there is somewhat of an arbitrage there with a cash-out refi,” he says.
In addition to the low rates, borrowers are continuing to enjoy a highly competitive lending market where lenders are working hard to retain or win refi business with both economic and non-economic terms.
The downside of the recent flurry of activity is that it’s likely pulled some refinance business forward into 2019. Potentially, the loans being refinanced then could result in a thinner pipeline of deals next year, 2020. However, it is difficult to say what the net affect might be on origination activity in 2020. Certainly, there are other drivers of demand, such as acquisitions and construction activity, which could remain robust and contribute to strong overall lending volumes in the coming year.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE (CRE) FINANCING & FED POLICY
The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts have sent a surge of excitement through the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Fed influenced rates have returned to 2018 lows, however, the Fed’s interest rate reductions have little to do with conventional CRE financing activity because most conventional commercial real estate lending is indexed over the 5 & 10 year Treasuries. The exception being SBA 7(a) loans that are indexed to the Prime rate which is normally set within a fixed spread vs. the Fed Funds Rate.
Treasury bills, notes & bonds are global instruments affected by worldwide geopolitical events, not necessarily United States monetary policy, i.e., a legislated rate. The recent spreads range from a low of 1.6% to 2.50% for most CRE properties and continues upward above 2.50% based on the risk profile of the property and the borrower, and other covenants of the loan.
Financing activity is tied to these factors, which have put recent rates in a range of 3.5% to 4.5%. This is still considered an attractive cost of capital, and in most cases provides positive leverage. For example, a not-too-exciting run-of-mill $5mm CRE investment with an initial NOI of 6%, that is leveraged 60% ($2mm/40% equity and $3mm/60% debt) borrowed at 4% interest, has a 6% return on investment (ROI), but as leveraged, has a 9% return on equity (ROE) … a yield enhancement of 50% over the unleveraged acquisition.
With more than sufficient liquidity in the market and strong CRE fundamentals, the now 10-year cycle in the CRE market looks like it has more room to run. But the Fed’s drop in interest rates is probably more of a psychological boost to financing. The capital markets are where to look for clues to the future – what are lenders doing. Keep an eye on the bond market. This market has led less transparent markets by as much as a couple years. The bond market will give you insight into the medium and long term cost of capital (5-20 years for CRE). The Fed largely influences the short end – 2 years and less. When they get out of sync with the public markets, e.g., an inverted yield curve, pay attention. How this resolves to “normal” is significant. Which party blinks first, the Fed or the bond market.
The CRE investment opportunities are apparent; the financing opportunities perhaps less so.
VARIABLE RATE LOANS AND FED POLICY
Reminder from our last issue:
You’ve heard of ZIRP – zero interest rate policy – from 2008-2015. Now get ready for NIRP – negative interest rate policy. Currently about $16 trillion of sovereign bonds (all countries that issue), or 25% of the total outstanding, trade at negative interest rates. This trend is firmly in place and increasing. The investor is paying the issuing country for the privilege of lending them money, or seen a different way, the investor has locked in a guaranteed loss if the bond is held to maturity. This is Alice in Wonderland monetary policy. Will Jay Powell turn out to be the least insane man in the asylum? And what does this mean to us in the CRE borrowing business? How might we expect this trend to color our borrowing potential going outbound?
Assuming Powell follows through with rate-reduction madness (they just reduced rates again today), how far down the rabbit hole will lenders go in following the Fed? For conventional loans we don’t know. However for Government guaranteed loans the Treasury will see that funds remain available. That’s fine for residential loans – FHA & equivalents – but how about CRE loans with businesses … especially with businesses. (Small businesses create jobs, and our Government is all about creating and retaining jobs. Sub-4% unemployment is good at election time.)
This sounds like an SBA loan … it is an SBA loan!! A type 7(a) to be specific.
There are 2 characteristics of this type of loan that are notable at this time.
1. The rate is variable (with only a few lender exceptions that I suspect will fade away in the current rate-declining environment). The rate will adjust up or down with changes in the Prime rate. In our current lending environment this is good. We think rates are low now, and historically they are, but we’re pioneering new ground on our way back to ZIRP, and possibly NIRP. We suggest you not want to lock in the low fixed rates that are being promoted by lenders.
2. More flexibility. Borrower’s go nuts when they hear the term is 25 years fully amortized. How can I possibly forecast 25 years in this highly charged rate environment? After all, the Fed is only one step removed from the Government and fiscal policy … that’s 6 election cycles! Well here’s the good news that almost always falls through the crack. The pre-payment penalty schedule for a 7(a) is 5, 3, 1, then zero!! That’s 5% in year one, 3% in year 2 and 1% in year 3, then zero for the next 22 years! After 3 years there is no pre-payment penalty. From a re-financing standpoint this looks a lot like a 3 year bridge loan with built-in extensions for the next 22 years, and without the up-front and back-end points (SBA guarantee fee notwithstanding).
If rates are indeed going to bottom over the next few years, refi your loan then and lock in that fixed rate in the lower interest rate environment that will exist. (I don’t expect you’ll get a ZIRP loan, but you never know.)
WHY AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE IS GOOD FOR FINANCING CRE
The black economic cloud that is typically associated with an inverted yield curve does indeed have a silver lining.
The table below shows selected U.S. Treasury rates as of Oct. 1, 2019. Rates look essentially flat from 1 month to 1 year, then take a noticable dip for years 3-10. and start to climb (normalize) from 10 to 30 years. Longer term rates don't exceed the 1 month rate until almost 20 years, and then by only 14 bps in year 20. Notable the 30 year rate is only 32 bps higher than the 1 month rate.. As an investor, going out a full 30 years would only get you only those few bps (basis points) more than buying a 30-day T-Bill. Buy we’re not considering the investment side of this; we’re looking at this as borrowers.
As of 1 mo. 6 mo. 1 yr. 3 yrs. 5 yrs. 10 yrs. 20 yrs. 30 yrs.
10-19 1.79 1.82 1.73 1.51 1.51 1.65 1.93 2.11
Among all the credit markets there tends historically to be correlations among the various types of debt instruments. The correlations are not exactly 1:1, but they maintain their linkages within fairly predictable ranges, in spite of the Feds intermediation the last decade. CRE debt operates within this atmosphere.
CRE lenders, be they banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, ESAs, etc. take their cues from their cost of money, alternative investment vehicles, creditworthiness of the borrower, geographical location, asset class, and a few other parameters. Borrowers traditionally pay a higher rate (cost of money) for the longer the term of the loan. At this time, however, longer terms have a lesser rate with the lowest rate in the 3- 5 yr. period, and longer term Treasuries don’t surpass the 30-day Bill until about the 20th yr.
If you’re considering a conventional CRE loan in the 5-10 yr. maturity range, you should expect to find tight spreads for rates, all other terms being equal (which they never are). This suggests you can borrow longer term for a nominal incremental rate. What’s the cost to renew a 5-yr. loan at the end of the primary term? … a point? Today the difference between the 5 yr. and 10 yr. is about 15 basis points. You can extend that 5 yr. loan today for a successive 5 yr. period (a 10 yr. term) for less than a ¼ of a point, and no re-application cost or hassle. Lenders will offer products up and down the maturity line as a function of the parameters mentioned above, in addition to keeping an eye on the competition.
There’s currently an excess of liquidity in the debt markets, particularly among the non-bank lenders not subject to banking regulatory rules. Late in the market cycle borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. This creates a supply-demand imbalance in the borrower’s favor. Lenders will structure products (loans) to fit the current curve, promoting the shorter term maturities with fixed rates, and longer term offerings leaning toward variable or adjustable rates, the exception being Government guaranteed loans. Longer term fixed rate loans in this environment may be hard to come by – at what point will banks start to pull commitments because their spread goes to zero? Other terms and conditions may come into play compensate the lender for anticipated curve normalization over the term of the loan – be sure you read all the terms of the loan, not just the rate and maturity.
Be sure you consider private money sources, too. They can be more aggressive/competitive in “unusual” environments like the one we have now, and possibly will have for the next year or so (or more?).
SO MUCH NEWS, BUT SO LITTLE CHANGES
We’ve endured the endless bombarding of “up-to-the–minute” news, “news-alerts”, and “this just in” for what seems like, dare I say, forever! And this doesn’t even include the onslaughts to those of you who stay glued to your hand-held devices for the never-ending tweets and hashtags. And the hot topics of the days gone by remain: trade tariffs, inverted yield curves, not if, but now when the next recession will hit, speculation about the Fed’s policies and whether the next FMOC meeting will raise, lower or hold pat on the Fed Funds Rate. The response of markets adjusting to the next shoe that drops seems instantaneous.
So many dots … how to connect them given that they keep changing? Unless you’re a 10-minute trader on E-Trade, you don’t. But clearly the news cycles have become opioids for the markets, this reflective most easily by considering the extreme volatility.
The volatility seen in public financial markets reemphasizes the security of CRE (commercial real estate). The recent financial market swings reiterate both the stability of commercial real estate and the attractive debt yields offered by this asset class. In addition, the exceptionally low interest rates currently available provide a highly-levered yield premium on a risk-adjusted basis for CRE. The recent average combined CRE cap rate of 6.3% exceeded the 10-year Treasury by 480 basis points (4.8%), one of the widest margins this cycle. Key to obtaining CRE enhanced by leverage is the financing used.
Current CRE investors look at declining interest rates with one eye, and their current loans with the other, anticipating refinancing when the current declining cycle bottoms … “then I’ll do it!” they say. This was the case in 2007 & ’08 when the Fed started us down the road to ZIRP. Some of you may remember. But borrowers also need to keep a 3rd eye on lenders. A funny thing happens when rates decline, especially if rapidly. (This typically in a recessionary environment, whether formally called or not.) As the economy weakens and rates keep dropping, banks are busy raising the bar on their underwriting standards! When rates get so low that you can’t wait to refi, you find that banks (and other lenders) have essentially stopped lending!! Banks especially may advertise “low” rates, perhaps 2-3%. And applications may come pouring in, but sadly no body qualifies! Now you’re stuck with that now-high-priced older loan at the bottom of the cycle until the economy recovers and the interest rate cycle clicks up again.
There isn’t exactly frantic lending yet, but the movement is afoot to get loans out the door before then next ¼ point (or ½ ?) rate drop. Declining and low interest rates also eat into banks margins. You may think rates are low, but banks can tell how low by the spreads. If the spread on any particular type of loan gets too thin, the lender will discontinue that loan. When the lending market went illiquid in 2009 it wasn’t because there was no money available. The Fed had been flooding banks with money through the various QE programs. The banks simply cycled the money (quietly) back to the Fed in excess reserves – no loans were made, and the economic recovery languished. The banks couldn’t afford to lend in the poor economic environment at the low-to-no spreads at the time. Hence the recovery waned. (Too bad it took the Fed several years with variations of the theme to figure this out. Maybe they’ll do better next time … but it’s still the same Fed!)
There’s a saying in markets that nobody sells the top, or buys the bottom … it’s just a saying. But the same can be said for refinancing a loan. Generally speaking, if you can make an incremental improvement in the debt component of your investment that otherwise makes sense, you should look at that pretty hard. The nature of the improvement may be quantitative or qualitative, and the acceptable level of incremental improvement is a judgement call. Bear in mind also that the rate is only one of the many terms and conditions of a CRE mortgage. Be sure you consider ALL the covenants.
THE FED IS JUST THE TIP
By the time the ink dries on this BLOG, if the futures market is correct the Fed will have reduced interest rates (the Fed Funds rate actually), by ¼ point. (It’s giving a quarter-point drop today a 100% probability.) Perhaps a better question isn’t when will they drop or raise the rate again, or by how much, but rather why will they do either, or consciously decide to do nothing.
The by-now-well-known (accepted) reason is to support the stock market, of course. But that’s old hat – everybody knows that, and as such there’s no particular advantage to any one investor. (Incidentally, nothing in the Congressional Act authorizing the creation & mandate of the Fed is support of the stock market mentioned.) But that doesn’t concern you … you’re reading this for information and insight into managing your CRE (commercial real estate) financing … perhaps to finance a new acquisition, refinance an existing property, or do a sale-leaseback in lieu of conventional financing.
So let’s consider the economic cycle, for this by their own admission is what the tea leaf readers at the Fed take their cues from to set and execute policy. Standard thinking is: weak economy => rate cuts => economic stimulus => rising GDP and a stronger economy. But there’s some untimeliness afoot when connecting these dots with CRE and CRE financing. It’s not that they’re unrelated, but they’re asynchronous – some would say random. The unreliable element is timing, that serendipity variable we all try to get a handle on but never seem to be able to. I yield to one of my favorite philosophers who waxed poetic on the subject:
“I find it very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
(Not familiar with Yogi? Try Googling him. He’s of sufficient fame that you’ll find several hits for him.)
But more to the point - let’s draw some relationships.
The value of CRE is primarily determined by its income stream.
The value of CRE is often (and simply) gauged by the “cap rate”, i.e., the income stream in dollars expressed as a percent of the value (price). This is an inverse relationship, i.e., if the interest rates go down, and income (NOI – net operating income) remains the same, the price goes up, and vise-versa.
But let’s consider why the the Fed may be dropping rates that ¼ point. Ostensibly this is to support a slowing economy and perhaps, they hope, prevent a recession. If the economy weakens as expected, however, we might expect business to slow down, CRE vacancies may be expected to increase, meaning that the net income to the property owner should be expected to decrease. And if rent decreases shouldn’t the property value go down? Of course. But wait … how can the value of the property go up because rates and reduced, but also go down because income decreases? The answer, of course, is the timing of the movements. But which comes first, the price movement or the interest rate movement? Experienced investors will tell us price moves first in reaction to lower rates. Experienced tenants, however, will tell us rents move first in anticipation of a slowing economy.
Unlike the stock market which is immediately transparent for all to see, the CRE and financing markets are much more opaque. This lack of immediate transparency causes the delays in movement between relationships. And the delays themselves cause misinformation, interpretation of information, speculation, false steps along the decision path, and unfortunately some bad decisions.
So how do you, the CRE investor/landlord/finance manager, track this information and divine the future to know where you are at any point in time so as to make accurate, foresightful, and yes, timely decisions?
Yes, the Fed is just the tip. It’s what’s downstream that causes our consternation.
Financing the Retail Asset
From a financing perspective, the retail sector continues to be challenged, but there are good gems to be acquired too.
From a lender’s perspective, there are particular challenges to retail deals getting done:
All of these issues can have significant impact on leverage levels, pricing, and whether or not a deal can even garner interest from a lender.
And who’s the culprit threatening retail? Why e-Commerce, of course.
However, in the CRE (commercial real estate) finance community one size definitely does not fit all. Opportunistic lenders are seeing an increased flow of opportunities since they require a creative and entrepreneurial lens.
Tenant mix, strategic plans for maintenance or repositioning, the leverage level, and the strength of the sponsorship is very important. Lenders need to understand and underwrite the story for success. The right tenant mix today typically is a mixture of food service (restaurants), entertainment and services … those services that can’t be ordered and shipped by Amazon, et al, more commonly termed “e-commerce resistant”. The retail center is starting to look a little like office services, just as the industrial park is beginning to resemble some retail. As the lines blur lenders are adjusting underwriting parameters.
The disruption caused by technology has increased the risk of hanging on to old business/investment models, but has also created opportunities for creative investors and problem solvers. These investor/borrowers are best served by aligning with equally risk tolerant lenders for successful acquisition and refinancing. This, however, is a decidedly smaller pool than it was even a few years ago.
So What Have You Done Lately?
We had a qualified borrower with all the qualifications lenders look for in a borrower.
The challenge: finding a lender for a conventional owner-occupied property that would refinance a gas station (not a popular asset class) and cash out the borrower up to 70% LTV … in this case $1,000,000.
BANKS ARE EXPECTING A STRONG YEAR (2019) FOR CRE LENDING
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently reported another stellar year for commercial/multifamily mortgage originations in 2018. Although the MBA will release final data next month, results from its fourth quarter mortgage originations survey point to volume that could be 3% higher than the record $530 million reached in 2017.
Banks are facing more competition. Growth of non-bank lenders has added a whole new dimension to the competitive landscape, particularly in bridge and construction financing, notes Kathleen Farrell, executive vice president, line of business executive, commercial real estate, at SunTrust Banks. There are multiple bids on any opportunity or new project that needs construction financing. According to the MBA, GSEs and life companies increased loan originations by 16 percent and 10 percent respectively in 2018. Debt funds also saw a big jump of 29 percent from an estimated $52 billion in 2017 to $67 billion in 2018.
Counsel Mortgage Note: If you’re only looking at banks for your CRE mortgage financing, you’re limiting your market search. Bank lending actually took a drop of 10% in origination volume last year, while life insurance companies and debt funds increased volume 10% and 29% respectively.
Banks were riding good momentum coming into 2019, with Q4-18 mortgage originations up 5% year-over-year, according to the MBA. Although that increase is lower than the broader market, which saw an estimated 14% jump in mortgage originations during the last three months of 2018.
The core property types that are most in demand continue to be multifamily and industrial, followed by office, hotels and then retail. However, banks are exhibiting caution even for favored property types in markets that have seen high levels of construction. Lenders are drilling down to look at specific submarkets and micro-markets to determine if there are concerns about oversupply. Community and regional banks remain very active in commercial real estate lending; in some cases, more active than some of the national banks. In addition, community and regional banks are stepping out and doing larger and larger deals in terms of loan amounts.
One important backdrop for the current bank lending climate is that bank commercial and multifamily loans continue to perform extremely well. The delinquency rate for those bank loans that are 90+ days past due is near record a low of 0f .48 % as of Q3-18. Banks historically have had “measured confidence” about lending as long as their delinquency rate remained low, although to my mind this is like driving forward looking in the rear view mirror.
One of the notable trends to watch in the banking sector is that some banks are doing more long-term, fixed rate loans with 7 or 10-year terms for clients on a select basis. For example, SunTrust Banks started developing a permanent loan product about two years ago. SunTrust’s longer term fixed-rate loan product started to gain momentum in 2018, as interest rates began to rise. We might expect, however, that the Fed’s announced “patience” in continuing it’s previously announced 2019 rate increases will likely trigger a shift in borrower demand back to variable rate loans.
Looking ahead to 2019, banks could face more headwinds in construction financing due to the late stage of the cycle and rising costs. Banks have been pretty disciplined this cycle in maintaining their underwriting standards when they evaluate construction loans. As the cycle runs this year into 2020, expect underwriting criteria for construction projects to become more strict and covenants more demanding.
On the positive side, however, there is still a lot of equity targeting CRE and what appears to be a steady transaction pipeline that will require financing.
Money Center Banks Cutting Back in 2019
The nation’s largest banks are being more cautious with their commercial real estate lending, based on what they are saying on their earnings conference calls.
The same headwinds that slowed bank lending last year are extending into 2019, as economists debate how much longer the current economic expansion, on pace to reach a record stretch in July unless the effects of the government shutdown stop it sooner, can continue. Interest rates are projected to keep going up and institutions face stiff competition for deals from non-bank lenders.
Additionally, borrowers are prepaying loans sooner as properties trade hands, slowing the growth of loans on bank books.
Marianne Lake, CFO at JPMorgan Chase & Co., reported commercial real estate loans were up 2% in the Q4-18, less than its recent pace of about 3.9%, according to data from the FDIC. That was below the industry average of 4.5%.
“In mature markets we’re again being pretty prudent,” Lake said. “I won’t call it tightening, but being very selective.”
Lake added the bank is “tightening” construction lending.
Wells Fargo gave a similar outlook as JPMorgan for 2019.
The Federal Reserve Board’s latest Beige Book, an anecdotal look at conditions around the country, suggests a better lending outlook from smaller banks, which reported steady demand for commercial mortgages.
Commercial real estate loan losses are still minimal, as underlying fundamentals remain strong.
The Mortgage Bankers Association is reporting it expects another strong year of loan originations.
“Mortgage bankers look to 2019 as another strong year for the commercial and multifamily mortgage markets,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president of research and economics. “The majority of top firms expect that ‘strong’ appetites from both lenders and borrowers will drive commercial mortgage originations higher.”
Mixed messages? To be sure. If the top 2 mortgage lenders reduce their appetites for CRE mortgage lending, that leaves a notably large gap to fill to meet demand. Smaller banks, be they community or regional, are more niche oriented than the larger money center banks who address the market with a broader brush. We all know WF, BofA and Chase, but who knows the Bank of Hemet and what their sweet spot is? (besides Counsel Mortgage) Competition will heat up for the remaining players in the market, and terms and conditions will have more “live fields”.
It’s shaping up to be a hectic year, but that can also mean profitability for those who can navigate the terrain. Markets hate uncertainty – it forces many participants to the sidelines. And in the meantime opportunities pass. If you’re going to stay in the game, we suggest you not go it alone. Find a skilled and trusted ally who will work in your interests, not the lenders. If this is you, we suggest you give us a call.
When considering financing of a gas station, it's important to recognize whether you're financing a business, the real estate, or both. If you're buying an operating gas station business in Arizona, you'll likely find both the business and real estate being offered for sale - the real estate will look like an asset of the business. If you want to buy the business with the real estate, this will greatly enhance your ability to obtain financing. Enhance because the real estate provides valuable collateral that lenders prefer - 1 of the other C's.
For buyers of gas station businesses with the real estate, there are still only 3 sources of capital: the buyer's own equity (an all-cash buyer), the seller (known as a seller carryback), and an SBA loan. The seller carryback is the easiest to structure, most flexible for possible terms, and least attractive to the seller resulting in either a higher price being paid for the business, a higher rate of interest being charged that an SBA loan, or both.
For gas station financing, SBA loans come in two varieties, a 7(a) and a 504. For financing the business and the real estate, either a 504 or the 7(a) is available, or they may be used in combination. The complete particulars of each loan, how they compare, and which may be best for any particular situation is left to individual discussion. Contact us if you'd like further information. A few easy points of distinction and application: The 504 loan is really 2 loans, 1 made by the SBA directly, and 1 by a bank. The percent of down payment for a 504 on a special use property, e.g., a gas station, is typically 15%. The amortization period for the SBA's portion of a 504 loan is typically 20 years, but can be 10. For a 7(a) where the business includes the real estate, the amortization period is 25 years. Both the 504 and the 7(a) have specific qualified use of proceeds, i.e., what can be financed with each type of loan. In either case, the borrower's experience in the gas station business is still a critical fact; adding real estate as collateral doesn't mitigate this risk in an operator. If this applies to you, call us for preliminary discussion. One thing to note about SBA lenders, either bank or non-bank lenders: they tend to specialize, or favor, either the 7(a) or the 504. They can usually do both - they just choose not to. If the Business Development Officer, Loan Officer, or Relationship Manager (all the same function, just different titles), work directly for the lender and not a broker, it's unlikely you'll be offered both types of loans.
How large a loan can you get? The current ceiling for both 7(a)s and 504s is $5,000,000 in each case. These can be combined for up to $10,000,000. Also, they are not limited for use on just 1 property and/or business Theoretically, you can build your gas station portfolio with SBA loans, if you do it right.
A note on SBA guidelines. SBA guidelines are reviewed an amended as-needed annually as part of the Congressional budgeting process. The SBA is funded annually for it's allocation of loans and guarantees. Meaning the $5,000,000 limit is subject to change, as are the other parameters. For SBA loans, even though there is the Government's involvement, lenders have discretion in what loans they'll approve. An applicant can meet all the guidelines (parameters) required and still be declined by a lender. The subjectivity among lenders is what separates them in the market - not all SBA lenders are made equal !! This is particularly notable when attempting to finance a gas station. Gas stations have always been a challenge for financing, even before 2008. Some lenders just aren't comfortable with them !! Since lending resumed about 2010 there's been a constant turnover in lender interest for gas station financing. What they like today they don't like tomorrow, and who didn't like gas stations today love them tomorrow. This constant fickleness of lenders has been a continuing challenge to those of us who cater to gas station buyers, sellers, and borrowers. At MJG through Counsel Mortgage, we are constantly updating and expanding our resource pool of gas station lenders, and generally keep a short list of active lenders for our clients.
Buyers of a gas station business and real estate can also use conventional financing. Just recognize that conventional real estate financing will not apply to the business component of the valuation. In this case, the leverage is reduced dramatically. For example: a $1,000,000 gas station that values the business at $300,000 and the real estate at $700,000 will qualify for conventional financing of $455,000 (65% of $700,000). The remaining 35% of the real estate value plus the total amount of the business value will have to come from other sources, typically cash from the buyer, or a seller carryback.
This financing overview will give you a peak into affordability - the feasibility of buying a gas station. For all the gas station businesses we represent we have developed a Financing Feasibility model based on the individual businesses historical financial performance. These are available for your consideration as a qualified buyer - just ask.
Buying a Gas Station Business Only - Not Including the Real Estate
When considering financing of a gas station, it's important to recognize whether you're financing a business, the real estate, or both. If you're buying an operating gas station business in Arizona, you'll likely find both the business and real estate being offered for sale - the real estate will look like an asset of the business. If you want to buy the business only, planning on being a tenant of a lease, this will greatly affect your ability to obtain financing.
For buyers of gas station businesses only (will be a tenant to the real estate owner), there are 3 sources of capital: the buyer's own equity (an all-cash buyer), the seller (known as a seller carryback), and an SBA loan. The seller carryback is the easiest to structure, most flexible for possible terms, and least attractive to the seller resulting in either a higher price being paid for the business, a higher rate of interest being charged that an SBA loan, or both.
For gas station financing, SBA loans come in two varieties, a 7(a) and a 504. For the business-only loan, the 7(a) is what will be used. Plan on having 20-25% down, and a term of 10 years. Depending on the business historical profile and the borrower's history and credit profile, we've seen deals done with as little as 15% down, or seen the other way, I've seen them as high as 30%. The 10 year term will require a minimum of 10 years on the lease. It's important to note that the loan is made by a bank, not the SBA. The SBA only guarantees the loan in case of default. For this guarantee the SBA charges a guarantee fee at loan funding (close of escrow), The guarantee fee ranges between 2.5 and 3.5% of proceeds, and can be financed along with the cost of inventory and closing costs. One thing often not considered: the borrower's experience in the gas station business. This has become a deal-breaker with a lot of lenders. We've found some ways with particular lenders to compensate for this. If this applies to you, call us for preliminary discussion. A financing overview will give you a peak into affordability - the feasibility of buying a gas station. For all the gas station businesses we represent we have developed a Financing Feasibility model based on the individual businesses historical financial performance. These are available for your consideration as a qualified buyer - just ask.
Collateral for SBA Loans
I ocassionaly hear surprises that rapidly turn into complaints about a lender for an SBA 7(a) loan wanting additional collateral (property) for a loan they have pending. This has surfaced as the prices buyers have been willing to pay have been increasing and are leading the values that appraisers are coming in with - somewhat typical in a recovering real estate market. (Bear in mind that appraisers took a big credibility hit in the 2008-2009 real estate collapse.)
The general SBA requirement is that the bank takes as collateral anything that is being financed. In the case of a business that includes the real estate, that includes the FF&E and inventory. If the value of the acquiring collateral does not cover the loan, the loan is still eligible. If the loan is considered under collateralized, however, and there is additional collateral available, the additional collateral must be used to secure further the loan. The "other collateral" typically means real estate with greater than 25% equity that is owned 100% by a guarantor. Whenever it's available, the lender looks first for the borrower's home.
Remember that SBA guidelines are just that ... guidelines. Some guidelines are more stringent that others, and some lenders hold them to be more conservative or aggressive that other. Collateral is just one of several guidelines that lenders consider with more or less flexibility in competing for loan placement. Most borrowers view all lenders through the same looking glass - this is a mistake. Also, many borrowers I deal with have the belief that lender's are doing them a favor by offering them a loan - also a mistake. Lenders complete for your loan. In lending on special use, or single use, properties such as gas stations, there are relatively few lenders who know the specific businesses such that they can be very aggressive in competing for the loan. If a broker intermediates the loan, they also have to be knowledgeable about not only the business being financed, but the lending business also.
At MJG not only are we real estate and business brokers, but Mike is a Commercial Loan Originators (BDOs) for the Counsel Mortgage Gp., with all that capability focused on gas stations and c-stores as a specialty. A recent count of identified SBA lenders with gas station capability tallied 50+ lenders. Notably, only 27 are in AZ! The stress on lenders since the 2008 bank bailouts, and the additional extreme (in our opinion) regulatory burden placed on the industry by the Dodd-Frank law has caused terrific disruption to the lending business, and in turn for borrowers trying to identify a lender and negotiate a loan. It's also places a companion burden on lenders trying to determine what exactly is a qualified borrower today - and "today" changes almost daily! Out of our current inventory of 50 SBA lenders we keep an active short list of 6-8 lenders known to be currently making gas station loans. We are in contact with these lenders frequently and are constantly updating our short list.
Financing has been a critical element of real estate for longer than most of us can remember. Much of the credit and financing industry we operate with today came with the creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1911. Evolving immediately thereafter on the heels of WWI and the fiasco that was the Treaty of Versailles, which spawned the seeds of WWII, and subsequently the Bretton Woods accords, following up with the advent of fiat currency, we now live in a global economic, finance, and investment environment totally dependent on credit and financing to keep the wheels of progress rolling.
Have you ever thought about where the word "credit" comes from? (Probably not.) The term has it's roots in Latin, French and Italian words meaning "belief" or trust". Way back when, as long as your creditors trusted you, and believed you had the willingness and capability to pay them back, you were fine. The price you paid - interest rate - was a judgment about your willingness and capability to repay the loan. For instance: The Pilgrims borrowed $7,000 dollars (actually pounds) in 1620 from an investor group in London to come to the New World. They paid it back over the next 23 years at a rate of 43% ... the price of perceived risk.
Lenders still use this willingness to repay as one of the 5 C's, character, in underwriting loans. We've come a long way since 1620 ... we've added 4 more C's !
You'll find news and reports on timely financial topics by scrolling down. You may also find additional news and briefs on financial issues of the day in our News & Reports section - just click on the tab at the top of this page.
Type your paragraph here.
MJG Gas Station Specialists LLC. All Right Reserved.
This was a refi loan of 2 existing gas stations with convenience stores in the Phoenix metro market. Underwritten as a portfolio loan, but structured as 2 separate loans.
The loan was conventional and refinanced 2 existing SBA 7(a) loans. The refinancing released about $2.3mm of SBA capacity to be re-used for additional acquisitions. Combined loan amount was approximately $3.2mm, and included about $1mm cash out to the borrower.
LTV was about 70% with an interest rate in the low 5’s.
This was a strategic refinancing that allowed the borrower to reduce his debt service, liquefy an additional $1mm for cash down payments on additional acquisitions to expand his business, and position high-leverage financing for the acquisitions in the form of new SBA loans.
COUNSEL MORTGAGE ANNOUNCEMENT
We're pleased to announce that Counsel Mortgage is now (effective 2015) licensed in California for the origination of both residential and commercial mortgage loans. Requests to or through MJGfor residential mortgages will be referred to a licensed residential originator at Counsel Mortgage - Counsel Mortgage Loan Officers who are also AZ real estate licensees will work only with commercial mortgages. See EZ click to Counsel Mortgage website, below.
(CA DBO# 60DBO43873; CA MLO# CA-DBO179539)
DISCLOSURE: Michael Green is Commercial Loan Originator with theCounsel Mortgage Group LLC, 8700 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd., Ste. 224, Scottsdale AZ 85255. Arizona Lic. # MB0909580. To learn more about the Counsel Mortgage Group and services offered, Click Here. NOTE: When you "Click Here" you will be leaving the MJG Gas Station Specialists website and going to the Counsel Mortgage website.